The most profitable way to run a fluid catalytic cracker moves constantly, with feed quality, catalyst activity and product prices. Operators hold fixed targets chosen for a typical day and leave margin on the table to stay clear of the compressor, the air blower and product quality. A surrogate learned from the historian and an agent that re optimises every set point in under a second keep the unit at the moving optimum.
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agreement of the historian surrogate with the mechanistic unit model, confirmed before it is trusted to advise
to re optimise every set point, against the minutes a conventional two step optimiser needs to solve
constraint violations across validation runs, with the hard limits held by construction rather than by penalty
The most profitable way to run a fluid catalytic cracker moves constantly. The optimum shifts with feed quality, catalyst activity and the relative prices of gasoline, LPG and distillate, and it sits against several competing limits at once. In practice operators hold fixed targets chosen for a typical day and leave margin on the table to stay clear of the wet gas compressor, the regenerator air blower and product quality. Conventional two step real time optimisation reconciles a steady state model and then solves an economic problem on a slow cycle, so by the time it advises a move the feed and catalyst have already drifted and the recommended point lags the true optimum.
| Hours of operation | True optimum | EntroMetrix RL | Two step RTO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 105.1 | 104 | 102.2 |
| 6 | 104.9 | 103.8 | 102.1 |
| 12 | 104.4 | 103.2 | 101.9 |
| 18 | 103.3 | 102.4 | 101.4 |
| 24 | 102.8 | 101.9 | 101 |
| 30 | 102.6 | 101.7 | 100.9 |
| 36 | 102.5 | 101.5 | 100.8 |
| 42 | 102.3 | 101.3 | 100.7 |
| 48 | 102.2 | 101.2 | 100.5 |
| Fixed target | 100 |
EntroMetrix builds a physics informed surrogate of the unit from the plant historian and pairs it with a reinforcement learning agent that continuously re optimises set points across the competing objectives. The surrogate learns the riser and regenerator response from operating data and is checked against the mechanistic model before it is trusted. The agent trades gasoline and LPG yield, unit margin, energy, coke and carbon, and honours the full operating envelope through safe reinforcement learning rather than a penalty added after the fact. It returns a Pareto set of feasible operating points, from which the plant chooses one.
| Conversion (%) | Gasoline yield | Light ends and coke |
|---|---|---|
| 78 | 98.8 | 95 |
| 80 | 100 | 97.2 |
| 82 | 101.1 | 99.2 |
| 83 | 101.7 | |
| 84 | 102.1 | 101.5 |
| 86 | 102.5 | 104.2 |
| 87 | 102.7 | |
| 88 | 102.5 | 106.8 |
| 89 | 102.2 | 108.4 |
| 90 | 101.5 | 110 |
The optimiser is built from the unit's own historian. Tags across the riser, regenerator, fractionator and gas plant train a surrogate of how the unit responds, and the surrogate is checked against a mechanistic model before it is trusted. The operating envelope and the economics are set with the plant's engineers, and the assumptions are written down before any advice is given.
On conversion units of this kind the surrogate reproduces the rigorous model to better than one percent and re optimises every set point in under a second, against the minutes a two step optimiser needs, so it stays with the optimum as the feed drifts rather than lagging behind it. Across validation runs the policy held every hard limit without a single violation, because the limits are built into the agent rather than added as a penalty afterwards.
| Baseline | Optimised | |
|---|---|---|
| Gasoline yield | 100 | 101.7 |
| Energy per bbl | 100 | 96.8 |
| Dry gas make | 100 | 97.4 |
| Carbon intensity | 100 | 97.1 |
The work is retrospective and offline first. The agent is trained and tested on the plant's own history and validated before it advises, and every recommendation is delivered with the yield, margin, energy and carbon it implies, so the operator stays in the loop. The same surrogate and agent transfer to the catalytic reformer and the hydrocracker with unit specific retraining, so one method covers the conversion block.
| Change in yield (%) | |
|---|---|
| Gasoline | 1.7 |
| LPG | 2.2 |
| LCO | -1.3 |
| Dry gas | -2.5 |
| Slurry | -5.7 |
| Coke | -2 |
Gasoline and LPG rise while dry gas, slurry and coke fall, as the agent lifts conversion to the point that pays without over cracking.
The agent holds the wet gas compressor closer to its limit because the envelope is kept by construction, recovering the band a fixed margin leaves idle.
Across feed and price conditions the agent captures the bulk of the available margin and stays well ahead of a slow two step cycle.
| Hours of operation | Current practice | Optimised |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94.8 | 99.6 |
| 4 | 94.5 | 99.5 |
| 8 | 92.8 | 99 |
| 12 | 91.5 | 98.1 |
| 16 | 89.5 | 97.6 |
| 20 | 88.8 | 97.5 |
| 24 | 89.2 | 97.8 |
| 28 | 89.8 | 98.4 |
| 32 | 90.3 | 98.5 |
| 36 | 90.6 | 98.3 |
| 40 | 91 | 97.9 |
| 44 | 90.7 | 97.6 |
| 48 | 90.3 | 97.3 |
| Compressor limit | 100 |
| Hours of operation | Available margin | EntroMetrix RL | Two step RTO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 10.5 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | 19 | 14.5 | 8 |
| 18 | 25 | 19 | 10.8 |
| 24 | 30 | 22 | 12.8 |
| 30 | 34.5 | 24.5 | 14.3 |
| 36 | 38.5 | 27 | 15.8 |
| 42 | 42.5 | 29.5 | 17 |
| 48 | 46 | 31.5 | 18 |
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